Healthcare careers resist economic crises and unemployment driven by automation

The sector’s high employability is due to factors such as population aging and increased demand for healthcare

Doctor wearing surgical mask, cap, and stethoscope giving thumbs up sign in a gesture of approval

Health professionals remain among the least vulnerable to automation and economic crises. Despite advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and the risk of unemployment in automatable sectors, care-related roles remain essential and continue to grow.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), even under the most conservative projections, the global shortfall of health professionals could reach at least 10 million by 2030. In more severe scenarios, that shortage could rise to 78 million. The US alone is expected to create 1.9 million new jobs by the end of the decade, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The trend includes not only doctors and nurses, but also professions such as nutritionists, physiotherapists, dentists, speech therapists, pharmacists, veterinarians, and specialists in genetic counseling and occupational health.

Above-average salaries and rising demand

According to the BLS, in May 2024, the average annual salary for medical and technical occupations in the US reached US$83,090, 67% above the national average for all professions, estimated at US$49,500.

Population aging and an increase in chronic diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, explain much of this demand.

A RAND study found that 60% of the US population lives with a chronic disease. Approximately 90% of annual health expenditure is attributed to the treatment of chronic diseases and mental disorders, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Mental health is another area requiring increasing attention. According to the WHO, mental health disorders have increased by 13% in the last decade.

The CDC estimates that more than half of Americans will receive a mental health diagnosis at some point in their lives

In Brazil, workplace absences due to burnout rose nearly 1,000% between 2014 and 2023, according to the National Institute of Social Security (INSS).

Meanwhile, the McKinsey Health Institute highlights the unmet demand in the world’s poorest regions, which account for 60% of the global population and still face limited access to essential care.

Latin America: professionals in short supply

In Latin America, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) estimates that the target of reaching 4.5 health professionals per 1,000 inhabitants by 2030 will be missed by 600,000. To provide coverage to 80% of the population, approximately two million professionals will be needed in nursing, obstetrics, dentistry, and pharmacy.

With 546,000 working physicians, Brazil has an average of 2.6 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants—more than double the number from 20 years ago, largely due to the proliferation of medical schools. The number is similar to countries such as the US (2.6), Canada (2.7), and Japan (2.5), but severe inequalities persist.

If the current trend continues, Brazil will have 3.6 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants in 2028, one of the highest rates in the world. However, professionals remain unevenly distributed: 62% are in large urban centers (with over 500,000 inhabitants), home to just 32% of the population. Of all physicians, 54% are based in the state capitals, where only 24% of Brazilians live.

Meanwhile, municipalities with up to 50,000 inhabitants, home to almost 66 million Brazilians in total, have only 8% of doctors. State capitals average 6.2 physicians per 1,000 residents, compared to just 1.7 in rural areas.

Although Brazil is not yet facing a shortage of nurses, the quality of training is a concern. According to the WHO, there is a shortage of six million nurses worldwide, and the situation is getting worse.

In Brazil, if training deficiencies persist, the sector risks losing more professionals in the coming years.

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